Overview
Former President Trump is currently leading in the Trump vs. Harris Poll, with a national survey showing him ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 50%-48%. This marks a significant shift from last month, where Harris had a narrow advantage. As both candidates prepare for the upcoming election, this latest Trump vs. Harris Poll raises questions about their strategies and voter support.
Harris, however, maintains a strong lead in key battleground states, but the national numbers reflect a growing movement toward Trump, suggesting the Trump vs. Harris Poll could indicate a closer race than previously thought.
Battleground States
- Harris Leads in Key States: In seven key battleground states, Harris is ahead by 6 points.
- Close Counties: The candidates are tied at 49% each among voters in counties where the Biden-Trump 2020 margin was less than 10 points.
Electoral Dynamics
- Trump’s support is stronger in counties he won by more than 10 points in 2020 (64%-35%) compared to Harris’s support in counties Biden won by more than 10 points (58%-39%).
- This raises questions about whether Harris could win the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote.
Poll Details
- Trump’s 2-point lead is within the margin of error and mirrors results among registered voters.
- Last month, Harris was up by 2 points among both likely and registered voters.
Shifting Support
- Demographic Changes: Trump has gained support among White voters, leading by 10 points (up from 4 points last month).
- Age and Education: He has also seen record highs among voters aged 65 and over (49%) and those with a college degree (48%).
Harris’s Support Decline
- Harris is experiencing her lowest support among key demographics, including:
- Black voters (67%)
- College graduates (49%)
- Voters aged 65 and over (47%)
- White college graduates (46%)
Recent Trends
- The race has remained close, with small fluctuations in support for both candidates over the past few months.
- The 20-point gender gap persists, with men backing Trump and women favoring Harris.
Voter Motivations
- New Voter Support: Harris captures 52% of new voters and 20% of non-MAGA Republicans.
- Independent Voters: She maintains a double-digit lead among independents.
Approval Ratings
- Trump’s Performance: He receives approval from 53% of voters regarding his time in office, with 93% of Republicans approving.
- Biden’s Approval: In contrast, only 40% of voters approve of Biden’s job performance.
Key Issues
- Economic Concerns: The economy is the top issue for 40% of voters, with 70% viewing economic conditions negatively.
- Trump’s Advantage: He is perceived as better than Harris on key issues like the economy, immigration, crime, and Israel.
Trust and Leadership Perceptions
- Honesty and Trustworthiness: Less than half of voters see either candidate as honest and trustworthy.
- Leadership Qualities: Trump is viewed as a stronger leader and more capable of handling presidential duties compared to Harris.
Conclusion
With three weeks until the election, the dynamics between Trump and Harris remain tight, emphasizing the importance of voter turnout in determining the election outcome.
